2018 World Series Predictions

It’s been a whirlwind of a day, so I’m going to make this one pretty brief. I talked more in-depth about the Red Sox and the Dodgers in my 2018 NLCS/ALCS Predictions that accurately selected the two powerhouses to advance this far. So who will hold the Commissioner’s Trophy? Let’s take a look at the World Series.

Long story short, both of these clubs easily have the most stacked lineups from top to bottom in the MLB. The pitching rotations aren’t great, but they are built to win playoff games with 2 or 3 aces. Both bullpens have been shaky at times, but dependable which is all one could ask for in October.

However, there are two key differences. The first is the managers. Dave Roberts is a seasoned veteran. He’s been criticized at times, but at the end of the day, he knows his players very well and puts together a strategic lineup every game. His in-game use of the bullpen and various double switches could be improved, but I give him a solid B+. Best of all, Roberts was managing games this late last year too, as his team fell to the Houston Astros in the Fall Classic. The man knows what it takes to win in the playoffs, and what he did to lose in them.

That’s not to say that Red Sox manager Alex Cora is inexperienced. It may be his first year as the skipper, but he too was in last year’s World Series… helping AJ Hinch’s team take the title. As a rookie manager, Cora has led Boston to their best regular season in franchise history, and is now just four wins away from the cherry on top. If he trusts himself as much as his team and fanbase does, the Red Sox will not be at a disadvantage in coaching.

The second difference is consistency. The reason the Dodgers couldn’t knock off the Brewers sooner is their inability to always score. The Brewers did a great job of putting points on the board every night. No, they never scored 8 or 9, but 2 or 3 is sometimes all it takes in the playoffs. Sure, the Dodgers are capable of it, but they are equally likely to be shut out too.

The Red Sox aren’t perfect in that sense, but much more reliable. Boston cans struggle at the hands of good starting pitching, as most teams do, but what sets them apart from the League is their drive to dig and string a few hits together when it matters. They rarely get blown out with their never-say-die mentality that ultimately stems from a player’s coach and that MVP in right field.

PREDICTIONS

Game 1 – Clayton Kershaw at Chris Sale, Red Sox win 4-3

Game 2 – Hyun-jin Ryu at David Price, Dodgers win 5-0

Game 3 – Rick Porcello at Walker Buehler, Red Sox win 7-6

Game 4 – Nathan Eovaldi at Rich Hill, Red Sox win 5-1

Game 5 – Chris Sale at Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers win 3-0

Game 6 – Hyun-Jin Ryu at David Price, Red Sox win 6-3

Red Sox in 6.

2018 NLCS/ALCS Predictions

And then there were four. In last week’s action, I got burned for sticking with my April pick to win the World Series, but I can’t be upset with correctly picking the other three finalists, predicting the first six games winners, and even getting the winning score correct in the first four of those games. I’ll try to keep it rolling. Let’s take a look at who’s moving on to the Fall Classic.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Things kick off tonight with the Dodgers visiting the Brewers. Both teams cruised through their respective division series with the Brew Crew shutting down the Rockies’ offense, and doing their job to advance, while the Dodgers were one grand slam away from doing the same to the Braves in three games instead of four.

I mentioned before why I love this year’s Brewers team. They actually remind me of the 2003 World Series Champion Marlins. There is just nothing special about them. No superstars, no perfect pitching, not the best coach in the world, but everyone does his job. They consistently manufacture three or four runs a game, and the pitchers can grind out quality starts without giving up the big inning.

The Brewers are a team that doesn’t beat themselves, and when the opposition tries to do too much, Milwaukee’s small ball prevails. They are riding an 11-game winning streak, one shy of the franchise record, as they look to march on and claim their club’s first ever Commissioner’s Trophy. With everyone else having won a championship before, one could argue that the Brewers want to advance more than any of the remaining teams.

The problem is, I don’t see a glaring weakness in Los Angeles. They do have superstars, great pitching, and one of the best coaches in the League. Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and newly acquired Manny Machado lead the way, but I truly believe every hitter in that dugout is dangerous in the right spot. They have a good balance of power and contact that can break down most pitchers and be successful over 9 innings.

The pitching staff is obviously headlined by Clayton Kershaw, who is still looking for his first ring. Arguably the greatest pitcher of all time, Kershaw needs to put his postseason struggles behind him to solidify his legacy. Next in line is rookie Walker Buehler, who was shelled by Ronald Acuna, and Rich Hill, who has been in the NLCS a time or two.

That’s the key for L.A.- experience. The Brewers haven’t seen a spotlight like this in a long time, and the Dodgers were here last year. Manager Dave Roberts has done a fantastic job managing his players through injury and hot streaks, and this series should be no different. He knows his team well, and the outcome of this series is on his shoulders.

PREDICTIONS:

Game 1 – Clayton Kershaw @ Gio Gonzalez, Dodgers win 5-2

Game 2 – Hyun-Jin Ryu @ Wade Miley, Dodgers win 6-3

Game 3 – Jhoulys Chacin @ Walker Buehler, Brewers win 4-2

Game 4 – Junior Guerra @ Rich Hill, Dodgers win 4-3

Game 5 – Brandon Woodruff @ Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers win 3-1

Dodgers in 5.

 

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Easily the two best teams in the American League this year, it’s only fitting that these two titans would clash with a trip to the World Series on the line. The clubs meet for the second October in a row, as the Astros took down the Sox in four games in last year’s ALDS en route to their first World Series in franchise history. Now the question is, do they have the hunger to do what no team has done since the ’98-’00 Yankees and go back-to-back?

The Red Sox boast a dangerous lineup of studs. Mookie Betts leads the way in my AL MVP voting in part due to his deadly combination of power, contact, and speed in the field. J.D. Martinez is a straight slugger with no fear, and it looks like even utility guys can come off the bench and hit for the fist cycle in MLB postseason history like Brock Holt. As good as Houston’s pitching staff is, they have their work cut out for them.

The ALCS most likely depends on the play of Boston’s starting pitching. The bats are there and so is the bullpen, but the starters all have a record of being shaky in the playoffs. Sure, the Yankees can make anyone look bad on any given night, but it’s been a trend for too long from guys like Chris Sale and David Price. It will be interesting to see what first-year manager Alex Cora does if these guys start to struggle early versus late. I’ll bet he wants to beat the Astros more than anyone else, as he was a part of that team that won it all last year.

Minus Cora, the Astros bring back virtually the same team, and in virtually the same form from 2017. If anything, they got better with the addition of former Pittsburgh Pirates ace Gerrit Cole. The pitching staff was lights out against the Indians, taking care of business in a quick three-game series. The Indians’ lineup isn’t mild by any stretch, but the Red Sox are on the next level. Cole along with my Cy Young pick Justin Verlander will have to prove that they are among the best throwers in the MLB if they want to get back to the Fall Classic.

Another great thing about Houston is their patience at the plate. Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Alex Bregman could not be more composed in any given situation. With their leadership and experience, the pressure is on Boston to force a swing-and-miss. As long as the rest of the lineup follows suit, I don’t see the Red Sox doing that four times a game. Then, it’s all about a shootout. These teams are so evenly matched, it’s anybodies guess what happens game-to-game.

PREDICTIONS

Game 1 – Justin Verlander @ Chris Sale, Red Sox win 3-2

Game 2 – Gerrit Cole @ David Price, Astros win 5-3

Game 3 – Nathan Eovaldi @ Dallas Keuchel, Astros win 4-3

Game 4 – Rick Porcello @ Charlie Morton, Red Sox win 7-5

Game 5 – Chris Sale @ Justin Verlander, Astros win 3-0

Game 6 – Gerrit Cole @ Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox win 5-4

Game 7 – Dallas Keuchel @ Rick Porcello, Red Sox win 2-1

Red Sox in 7

2018 ALDS/NLDS Predictions

On to the next one. After one anticlimactic victory in the Bronx and an absolute heartbreak at Wrigley, we have narrowed the field to eight. I do feel for Chicago. One day they’re one big hit away from the best record in the National League, and 24 hours later they find themselves out of the playoffs just as it gets started. After a grueling 163 games, their season is as over as the Orioles’ season is… but the validity of the Wild Card game is a discussion for another day. Let’s take a look at the best-of-five Division Series.

 

Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros

The Astros’ journey to repeat as World Champions makes its first stop against Cleveland. One of the first teams to clinch their spot in the postseason, Houston nearly gave up the division lead before ultimately finishing off the final two weeks with a commanding six-game difference. For the Indians, there was hardly any doubt that they would finish at the top of the AL Central. As weak as every other team in that division was, it’s hard to figure why the Indians have the worst record of all playoff teams besides Atlanta… perhaps we are about to find out.

The Astros are the same powerhouse that they were last year, but they are missing one thing: hunger. They have a convincing 103 wins on their resume, but they don’t have the feel of a dominant win-at-all-costs mentality when it counts. A.J. Hinch has proven that he is one of the best managers in the MLB, but he has not instilled the same drive as he did when the Astros claimed their first title in franchise history last year.

The talent is there at the plate with perennial superstars Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman. Arguably more impressive is their starting pitching staff, as my AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander takes the hill in Game 1 following one of the best seasons of his long career. His 2017 playoff exploits are well-documented and he should be a force in 2018 as well. The rotation rounds out with aces Gerrit Cole and Dallas Keuchel along with all-star Charlie Morton. They have all the pieces, but do they want it enough?

The Indians have been surprisingly lackadaisical in their own right…basically the Patriots of the MLB.  There isn’t any reason the Indians shouldn’t have run away with their division, and granted, they did by 13 games, but staying under 100 wins worries me. Preseason, I had the Tribe just behind the Astros for the best record in the MLB, so this match-up is very high-profile, and will be very difficult for the Indians to take on without home field advantage.

Cleveland boasts some big bats too. Of course there’s Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Edwin Encarnacion, but now there is the controversial addition of former AL MVP Josh Donaldson. For those unfamiliar with the situation, Donaldson was on the DL for the Blue Jays when he was reinstated to the MLB roster before being immediately traded and put back on the DL by the Indians. It’s against MLB trade rules to deal an injured player, so this was met with some ire around the MLB. In any case, the man is here now, and we are yet to see what he truly brings to the table for the Indians.

The key for this series is starting pitching. The Astros have the better all-around lineup, and the Indians can control the game beyond the 7th inning. That gives Houston 5 or 6 innings to take a lead and try to hold it. Houston can definitely be confident in their rotation, but Cleveland’s is a question mark. Sure Corey Kluber is one of the best pitchers in the game, but he has yet to play great postseason baseball. Carlos Carrasco is the obvious number two, and he famously missed out on the 2016 World Series run with an injury, so his playoff experience is limited. Beyond that, injuries have left the Indians scrambling for innings, and that will ultimately cost them.

PREDICTIONS:

Game 1- Corey Kluber at Justin Verlander, Astros win 4-2

Game 2 – Carlos Carrasco at Gerrit Cole, Astros win 6-5

Game 3 – Dallas Keuchel at Mike Clevinger, Indians win 5-1

Game 4 – Justin Verlander at Corey Kluber, Astros win 2-1

Astros in 4.

 

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

This is what baseball is all about. The best rivalry in sports in an abbreviated best-of-five playoff series. It’s hard to believe the last time these two giants met in October was the infamous 2004 ALCS that saw the Red Sox come back from an 0-3 hole to win the pennant. The Sox and the Yankees have had two of the best seasons in the MLB this year, and neither wants to have their work undone by their bitter rival. Let’s get into it.

The Red Sox haven’t played a game in five days, and that could be a huge factor in Game 1. Too much rest is definitely a bad thing, especially when they face a Yankees team that has maintained some hot bats as the season came to an end. However, new manager Alex Cora has led Boston to their best regular season in their long franchise history, and there are countless factors to explain it.

First, they have a nearly unstoppable lineup. From top to bottom, Boston has a deadly combination of contact, power, and an ability to get the important hit. I could single guys out like my AL MVP Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, but truthfully there isn’t a single guy on that roster that I wouldn’t trust with the bat in his hand. The Yankees pitchers will have to do their homework.

The likes of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, and even Eduardo Rodriguez have been superb throughout the summer, but their postseason track records tell a different story. We already saw one of the greatest pitchers of all time get benched in Game 1 for his lack of postseason success, but by the looks of it, the Red Sox are going to try to power through. Either these guys find their form in some of the most heated ALDS action in years, or their legacy is already written in stone, and they crumble under the playoff lights.

This is great news for the Yankees, as their biggest weakness is easily starting pitching. They’re down an ace after Luis Severino started the Wild Card game and spun a gem through four innings before Aaron Boone quickly pulled him from the game. I initially questioned the move, but it worked out in the end as Dellin Betances eliminated the threat and the Yanks cruised into this matchup.

J.A. Happ and Masahiro Tanaka aren’t major steps down, though on paper they are inferior to the Red Sox’s rotation. So, with a small advantage going to Boston’s bats and the pressure on the ace pitchers to play like it in the playoffs, the pressure is on the Red Sox to win. This is sure to be another exciting chapter in this great rivalry, and we are all lucky to see it unfold starting tonight.

PREDICTIONS:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ at Chris Sale, Red Sox win 5-3

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka at David Price, Yankees win 7-1

Game 3 – Rick Porcello at Luis Severino, Yankees win 6-3

Game 4 – Chris Sale at C.C. Sabathia, Red Sox win 8-5

Game 5 – Masahiro Tanaka at David Price, Yankees win 4-2

Yankees in 5. (I have to go with my preseason World Series Champions)

 

Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

I’ll be honest, I never really thought I’d be making a playoff prediction between the NL regular-season champion Milwaukee Brewers and the Colorado Rockies. Both of these clubs have had absolute fairy-tale seasons and it’s going to be a shame to watch one of them bow out now. Before going any further, I know Game 1 happened yesterday, but it hasn’t influenced my overall series prediction.

An advantage that the Brewers have, unlike the Red Sox, is that they haven’t had to wait quite as long for their next game. However, the Rockies haven’t gotten much time to breathe and take in the moment having to play in some extremely important baseball games over the past week. Well, now Colorado made it. How do they respond?

Ironically, it’s been stellar pitching. They are known for the hitter-friendly Coors Field and dangerous bats of Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story, but they have failed to truly produce so far this week. Luckily, the Rockies have played great defense and kept their dreams alive by silencing their opponents’ bats as well. I don’t really expect that to continue, as last night was proof that the Rockies will need to string runs together to win ball games at this level.

The Brewers lucked out last night as they were virtually shut out but for a Christian Yelich two-run homer to give them some comfort. With a pitching staff like Milwaukee’s, who didn’t even have a true starter for Game 1, it’s probably only a matter of time before the Rockies wake up at the plate.

I love the style of the Brew Crew. Yes, Yelich is probably the NL MVP, but even he isn’t truly a “big name”. You have the Bryants, the Altuves, and the Trouts, but the Brewers don’t really have a true star. Across the board they do their job and contribute. Cain, Yelich, Moustakas, Shaw, Aguilar… they do what they’re good at, and they do it well. That wins you an even-matched playoff series.

PREDICTIONS

*Game 1 – Antonio Senzatela at Brandon Woodruff, Brewers won 3-2

Game 2 – Tyler Anderson at Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers win 4-3

Game 3 – Wade Miley at Kyle Freeland, Rockies win 9-2

Game 4 – Gio Gonzalez at German Marquez, Rockies win 4-1

Game 5 – Antonio Senzatela at Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers win 3-2

Brewers in 5

 

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I saw the score for Game 1 here too, but it only reaffirmed my belief that the NL is the Dodgers’ to lose. They have by far the best and most experienced batters, pitchers, and coaches. It really is that simple. The Braves are young and have had a tremendous season out of nowhere, but they have the worst record among playoff teams, and they just aren’t ready for baseball like this. The nothing-to-lose attitude is great, and maybe they can steal a game from L.A. with that mentality, but it isn’t sustainable in a must-win format.

I don’t really have much more to say on the matter. The Dodgers held out Kershaw from Game 1 due to his postseason miscues, and they were still all over Atlanta from the first batter… literally. This should be quick and painless for the Dodger faithful, and at least Atlanta can say they made it this far. Congrats to the NL East Division Champions, it was well deserved and it’s only the beginning with guys like Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Freddie Freeman sticking around for the long haul.

PREDICTIONS:

*Game 1 – Mike Foltynewicz at Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers won 6-0

Game 2 – Anibal Sanchez at Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers win 2-1

Game 3 – Rich Hill at Julio Teheran, Dodgers win 4-3

Dodgers in 3

2018 MLB Wild Card Predictions

We may have finished the regular season a day later than some anticipated, but we don’t have to wait any longer for postseason baseball. Before I get to my predictions for the midweek games, indulge me as I detail my MLB predictions since creating Sports Thoughts: 6 division winners in 2017 and 3 in 2018 (75%), 7 of 10 playoff teams in both 2017 and 2018 (70%), as well correctly predicting that a Game 163 would occur in 2018. If it wasn’t for the Cubs dropping to the Brewers at home on Monday, I’d be 83% effective when picking division winners, the only misses being a disappointing 2018 Nationals campaign, and a historic Red Sox season that saw them outlast the Yankees for the AL East title.

Last year, I also correctly predicted both Wild Card games and both Conference Championships, but my Achilles heel was a 1-3 record in the Division Series, and so I finished with an improvable 56% postseason record. We’ll see if I start just as hot as last season with my picks for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Let’s take a look at my 2018 Wild Card predictions.

 

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs

Unfortunate scheduling sees the two tiebreaker losers playing the very next night to keep their seasons alive. The Cubs were looking at the #1 seed in the National League 24 hours ago, and now they’re facing elimination. The Rockies made it interesting against the Dodgers late, but still suffered a tough loss. Now they hop on a plane to Chicago with their season on the line. It was an emotionally draining day for both clubs, so who can pick up the pieces first?

The pitching matchup features the veteran Jon Lester for the Cubs taking on an upstart young pitcher in Kyle Freeland. I wouldn’t say either can necessarily take over the game, thus I expect the bullpen to make the difference late. Both lineups are pretty much equally dangerous at the plate. The likes of Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story get help from a red-hot David Dahl and a steady DJ LeMahieu for the Rockies. The Cubs return all of the crowd favorites to the postseason as Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Ben Zobrist.

The X-factor for Chicago is Daniel Murphy, the former Mets second baseman who nearly single-handedly crushed the Cubs’ World Series dreams in 2015. Now, he can change the North Side’s opinion of him if he can deliver for Chicago on Tuesday night. Additionally, with the luxury of staying home for a good night’s sleep on Monday, the Cubs have a huge advantage in not only rest, but a raucous home crowd in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Despite struggling in the 8th inning against the Brew Crew, I think the combination of a relentless, experienced lineup and a rested pitching staff gives the Cubs a best-of-five rematch with Milwaukee.

Cubs win 5-3.

 

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees

The story is far different for the American League Wild Card game. As the seeding was locked in way before Game 162, the A’s and Yanks could afford to go into cruise control as they prepared for their upcoming elimination game on Wednesday night. It’s hard to predict how the players and coaches will deal with the emotions that come with playoff baseball in Yankee Stadium, and without announced starters at the time of this article, it’s even harder to foresee how the early innings will go down.

I’ll be blunt: the Athletics’ starting pitching is pretty abysmal. Luckily, they boast one of, if not the best bullpens in the MLB. Mike Fiers is really the only starter that has a shot in this game, and he was just shelled by the Angels in his last start. Meanwhile, word has it that Liam Hendriks, who hasn’t allowed a run since September 1, may throw the first inning or two before turning the game over to the rest of the pen. It would be a smart move to play to their strengths, but that puts a lot of stress on Oakland’s bullpen not only on this game, but down the road if they are fortunate enough to advance.

For the Yankees, I’m giving the start to ace Luis Severino over J.A. Happ, who is 7-0 in a Yankee uniform. While Severino hasn’t been the Cy Young candidate fans were expecting, he has a pretty superb 3.39 ERA on the season, and he has held opponents to three runs or less in his last six quality starts. However, it’s worth mentioning that in the middle of that span he had his worst start since July. On September 5, he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits in 2 2/3 innings to.. guess who? The Oakland Athletics.

With all of that said, the pitching isn’t the story of this matchup. The A’s and Yankees have two of the best offenses in the MLB and it’s going to be feast or famine at the plate. There really isn’t a single guy I’d want to face on the Yankees roster, as they bring sluggers Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Gary Sanchez, and Luke Voit who is absolutely on fire. If Oakland goes with their bullpen strategy, I expect double-digit strikeouts, but also at least three home runs.

The A’s aren’t as dangerous from top to bottom, but they sure can swing it at the heart of the lineup. Khris Davis has crushed 48 home runs while playing games at a very deep Oakland Coliseum, Jed Lowrie has 99 RBIs to trail only Davis’s 123 on the team, and Matt Chapman and Matt Olsen seemingly always come through in the final innings when Oakland needs a rally. In a hitter’s park like Yankee Stadium, it doesn’t matter who is on the mound… the A’s will take them deep.

The flow of the game will echo their respective seasons. They feel each other out for innings 1 and 2. The bottom of the Yankees order hits Fiers after he comes in for Hendriks, and the Yankees finish the 3rd up 3-0. Severino gives one or two back, but that’s it through 5. The Yankees go hitless until the 6th when they string a few together to take a commanding 7-2 lead by the 7th inning stretch with a couple of long bombs. However, when the mighty A’s closers come in, they are unable to extend the lead as Oakland starts their comeback. Two runs in the 7th, another in the 8th, and an RBI double with one out in the 9th. Now clinging to a one-run lead, manager Aaron Boone opts to leave in Aroldis Chapman who strikes out the final two batters and strands the tying run in scoring position.

Yankees win 7-6.

2018 American League (And World Series) Predictions

Now on to the American League. If you haven’t seen it yet, go check out my 2018 National League Predictions before reading on to find out who I’ve got in the World Series. Here in the AL, it’ll be a slug fest. From the Bronx Bombers to the defending champs in Houston, it’s all a matter of who’s going to have the hottest offense at the right time. Let’s take a look at who will have that sweet swing by season’s end.

 

AL West

Much to the MLB’s dismay, the Astros are only getting better. The defending World Champions not only retained the bulk of their lineup, but they actually got stronger with the arm of ex-Pirates ace Gerritt Cole. That rotation was already pretty deep with Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel leading the way, not to mention the heat of Ken Giles in the bullpen. Throw in perennial MVP candidate Jose Altuve and his partners George Springer and Alex Bregman, and you have a really fun team to watch that can crush the morale of any team in baseball.

I can save you some time if you want to skip ahead, there is no beating that in the AL West. The other teams all have their individual strengths, but nothing matches the overpowering Astros. Perhaps the furthest off are the A’s who have a very tough ballpark to play in at the O.Co Coliseum. Without Sonny Gray, the pitching looks like it could really scuffle, and a few minor moves in the offseason don’t look like they can revive Oakland. That said, I am never one to doubt the “Moneyball” movement.

The Rangers had a good run last year, but in the end they fell short of the playoffs and sold catcher Jonathan Lucroy and Yu Darvish before the trade deadline to put them out of contention. Despite an above-average lineup, Texas just doesn’t have the power to overcome predominantly poor pitching across the board. In a hitter’s park like Arlington, things can go either way, but the Rangers’ greatest weaknesses will show on the road.

In the northwest, the Mariners have a pretty solid team, but nothing too flashy. The power combo of Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano is always scary, and even if his best years are behind him, you never want to face King Felix on the mound. Also, shortstop Jean Segura’s OBP can raise a few eyebrows just like his glove on the left side of the infield. But overall, Seattle just isn’t built to win championships without a few more pieces.

The Angels are on the rise with the signing of Shohei Otani, but honestly, I’m not a huge fan. As good as he was in Japan, the MLB is a different league. Minor Leaguers can shred their competition, but they won’t get any respect unless they can prove it in the big leagues. Japan should be no different. That said, if he happens to be as good as advertised, L.A. would have one of the best outfields in the world with Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton as well as a versatile kicker in Otani. I just don’t see the pitcher/DH making a huge impact.

Predictions:

1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels (Wild Card)
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics

 

AL Central

The AL Central is just as much of a runaway as the West. The two-time defending champions Cleveland Indians should stay in control wire-to-wire in 2018. Even with the losses of Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw in the offseason, Cleveland is as dangerous as ever. Namely, their murderer’s row pitching rotation puts a capable starter on the hill every night. Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber leads the Tribe, but I wouldn’t want to square up against Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, or even Danny Salazar. There’s no off day in Cleveland, the only question is what seed they can come away with in the playoffs.

Last year there was a clear pecking order throughout the division, but I think spots 2-4 could be separated by 5 games or less in 2018. The Twins made the jump from one of the worst teams in the MLB to second in the AL Central in 2017, narrowly missing out on a Wild Card spot in a competitive playoff race. I’m tabbing the Twins to move back around .500 this year because I think they over-performed in 2017, and that false confidence led to some stagnant offseason decisions.

There’s always that team that makes a surprise jump like the Twins did. This year, I actually have two. The Giants in the NL, and the White Sox right here. Nobody has made more moves than Chicago since July, and now is when it will start to pay off. They are by no means a team to steal a playoff spot, but they won’t be getting walked over. Yoan Moncada and Lucas Gioloto are two names I’m really excited to watch as they make their mark on the MLB this year. Hang with them through the growing pains, and before long we can see the Sox in October.

Recently the Royals have been hovering around the top spot in the AL Central but have only been able to take the crown once in the history of the division (no pun intended). Unfortunately for KC, they won’t be any closer this year. While they were slowly able to re-sign some of their key players from the famed 2015 World Series run, this year will probably be their last chance to win-now. Even then, the pitching just isn’t there to face the powerful American League bats.

That leaves the lowly Tigers. It’s easy to put them in the cellar after watching them give away Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez in 2017. Besides an aging Miguel Cabrera and a very inconsistent Jordan Zimmermann, there isn’t much to love in Detroit. But how low can they go?

Predictions:

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Detroit Tigers

AL East

Here’s where it gets fun. The AL East is a beast of a conference, probably only rivaled by the NL West. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles all have legitimate shots at winning it, and the Blue Jays are in the hunt for the Wild Card too. As for the Rays, well, without Evan Longoria it’s better luck next year.. maybe.

Toronto is a long shot mainly due to two big losses already. That is, Troy Tulowitzki dealing with a nagging heel problem, and Jose Bautista just not getting signed for some reason. Edwin Encarnacion has been out the door for a while now, and that leaves exactly zero stars from the glory days a couple of years ago. The good news is that the pitching is still there, but there are a lot of big bats to beat in the AL East.

Baltimore has the opposite problem. Their lineup is dangerous from top to bottom. You’ve got Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Adam Jones, and you have the undervalued Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini in the mix too. The problem is their pitching. If this tells you anything, their ace is Dylan Bundy, and Zach Britton will miss at least the first two months of the season with a torn achilles. Every game the Orioles play will be a shootout, and they can only win so many of those.

Boston. I picked you to win it all last year.  What happened? You had everything going for you.  A plethora of young talent, the ace of aces in Chris Sale, and a winning fanbase led by manager John Farrell. Oh.. John Farrell. Well, he’s gone now, so we’ll see what new manager Alex Cora can do in that clubhouse to get you back on top.

Well, that is, if you can get past the New York Yankees. In March 2017, I picked the Yankees to win the 2018 World Series. The signing of Giancarlo Stanton and a lower budget only affirmed that prediction. There are hardly words to describe the dominance of this 40-man roster. Even with some blockbuster trades over the winter, they still maintain an incredibly strong farm system. If the Yankee dynasty was over, it’s surely back now.

Predictions:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox (Wild Card)
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

Game 163: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles- I can’t decide who will advance to the Wild Card game to face the Red Sox between the Angels and Orioles, so I declare a tie. Given the history of the Orioles in sudden-death games, Angels win.

AL Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox- I still like the Sox this year; it’s just a tough draw playing with the Yanks. Chris Sale can ground the Angels, and the bats won’t have a problem with anyone in that rotation. Red Sox win.

NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals- I picked the Cubs to win the NL Central before the signing of Greg Holland to St. Louis, and I’m already regretting it. Nevertheless, here they are against Madison Bumgarner in an elimination game. No chance. Giants win.

Division Series

ALDS: (1) Houston Astros vs. (4) Boston Red Sox- They’ve been here before. Last year, Houston knocked out my predicted champions in a speedy 4 games. The same rosters return for both squads, except the Astros added Gerrit Cole. I won’t commit to the sweep, but Astros in 4.

ALDS: (2) Cleveland Indians vs. (3) New York Yankees- The Yankees are the three seed because their schedule is going to be way harder than their AL West and AL Central counterparts. So we have another rematch, this time of the 2017 ALCS, and we have the same result. Yankees in 3.

NLDS: (1) Washington Nationals vs. (4) San Francisco Giants- The Nats just can’t escape the NL West. D.C.’s struggles in the postseason have been well documented, from the Giants to the Dodgers, and most recently the Cubs, ousting them in the very first round. This is the Nationals’ last chance to win with Bryce Harper, and new manager Dave Martinez finally, finally makes the most of it. Nationals in 5.

NLDS: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (3) Chicago Cubs- A really fun matchup of the past two World Series champions will collide in an exciting series that features everything a fan could want. Two great teams, the world’s best pitcher, and the league’s best fanbases. That said, the Dodgers are just too complete of a team to lose in a series format. Dodgers in 4.

Conference Series

ALCS: (1) Houston Astros vs. (3) New York Yankees- What a fun series this will be. The best two offenses will go at it in 7 games that could all reach double digits. Throw any kind of pitching advantage out the window; it comes down to clutch hitting and who wants it more. Yankees in 7.

NLCS: (1) Washington Nationals vs. (2) Los Angeles Dodgers- What a nightmare for those Nationals fans. Riding high off their first ever postseason series win, the Nats are ready to take their momentum to the very last game. Unfortunately, they’re about to run into the buzzsaw that is L.A. Dodgers in 5.

World Series Prediction- Yankees beat Dodgers in 6 games.

2018 National League Predictions

It’s one of my favorite days of the year: Opening Day. Baseball returns today, and that means it’s time for my predictions for each division. Last year, I correctly named all 6 division winners, and named the dark horse to sneak into the playoffs. Will I fare just as well this year? Let’s take a look at what we can expect over the next seven months.

NL East

Let’s start off easy. If you can believe it, the best offense in the National League will actually get better this year. As the Nationals are my hometown team, I am well-versed in their injury-riddled 2017. Nonetheless, they cruised to their third NL East crown in four years by not only being the only team in the division over .500, but by beating the second-place Marlins by 20 games. This year, for better or for worse, will be no different for D.C.

Second baseman Daniel Murphy will start the season on the DL while he recovers from a knee injury he suffered last October. Trea Turner has been prone to a few on-and-off injuries due to his stature, and of course accidents can happen. That said, it’s easy to forget about stellar outfielder Adam Eaton returning to this talented roster to help with depth in the outfield and add to a very strong starting lineup. I don’t know how many games the Nats will play at full strength, but one way or another, they will be at the top of the NL East pile by season’s end.

As good as the Nats will be, that’s not to say this division is lopsided… besides the Marlins. New General Manager Derek Jeter sold basically everyone this offseason to kick start the rebuild in Miami. Unfortunately, due to the spending spree and fan backlash, those left in South Florida aren’t too happy to be there. I don’t expect this season to be a complete disaster, but make no mistake, it’s going to be hard to watch the Marlins.

The Phillies, Mets, and Braves find themselves in the middle ground. The Mets had their 2017 season littered with an absurd amount of injuries, primarily to one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball. They can be a surprise team in 2018 if they’re at 100%, but nothing is a guarantee in New York.

As I anticipated, the Phillies have made a lot of improvements over the offseason. One of the youngest teams in baseball, everyone has a year of experience under their belt, and the front office made moves to acquire free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta to bolster their roster. Still, with one of the biggest remaining budgets in the MLB, the Phils may not be done yet.

Predictions:

1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Miami Marlins

 

NL Central

Moving westward in the NL, we come to the midwest that has been dominated by the Cardinals and the Cubs over the last 5 years; St. Louis winning from 2013-2015, and Chicago winning in 2016 and 2017. This year, I envision the bitter rivals atop the standings again.

Similar to the Marlins, the Pirates sold the farm over the offseason. They surrendered their young ace, Gerrit Cole to the Astros for four players highlighted by pitcher Joe Musgrove, and most notably, they let the face of the franchise Andrew McCutchen go to the Giants for two of San Francisco’s top prospects. The Pirates’ front office will tell you that this is a money-saving move for the future, but Pittsburgh fans have got to wonder when the future will finally be here.

The Reds are no better off than they were in 2017. Their pitching is still horrendous, and Cincinnati’s hot start at the plate last year quickly dissipated as the season wore on. The only question is if the Pirates’ moves will drop them below the Reds in the standings or not. Regardless, these two franchises will be in the cellar of not just the NL Central, but the MLB.

I’m keeping the Brewers in third after a tremendous 2017. Their overachievements were awesome, but I don’t see sustained success in Milwaukee. Luckily, the Reds and Pirates will inflate their win total, so maybe they can make a couple of roster-solidifying moves come the trade deadline. For now, I’m dropping them to 3rd.

That leaves the Cubs and Cardinals… and it’s going to be close. Chicago had a drop-off after their World Series run in 2016, but a 92-70 record is pretty respectable. The Cardinals should be healthier this season, with ace Carlos Martinez returning from injury, and Alex Reyes, one of the best young prospects in baseball, primed to make his MLB debut in May. The main question in the NL Central is: will the Cubs recapture that winning hunger with all of the same talent still on the roster, or can the Cardinals’ constant push dethrone the reigning division champs?

Predictions:

1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals (Wild Card)
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

 

NL West

I was so ready to pick the Giants to pull off the classic “worst to first” move… and then Madison Bumgarner broke his hand. Last year, the Giants went from a Wild Card team to one of the worst teams in the MLB, and not that it’s Bumgarner’s fault for falling off his dirt bike.. but it’s kind of his fault. So, while he sits out the first 6-8 weeks of the season, I don’t know how San Fran can fair in an incredibly competitive division even with the acquisitions of superstars Evan Longoria and the aforementioned McCutchen. But when Bumgarner’s back, they will be my playoff dark horse.

The runaway Wild Card winners from last year are definitely still in the hunt, too. The Rockies and the Diamondbacks swapped 2nd and 3rd place in the division all summer long until they finally settled the score in a one-game playoff in Arizona. With a general improvement in the NL (minus the Marlins and Pirates), it’s going to be very hard to repeat that success.

The Rockies finally bolstered their bullpen with Wade Davis. This was their biggest problem last year, and if he can pitch well in a hitter’s park like Coors Field, Colorado is capable of making it back to the postseason. I also have an eye on Carlos Gonzalez. He was virtually nonexistent in 2017 after being a perennial star for the Rockies throughout his career. I don’t know which Carlos will show up this year, but if it’s his former self, Colorado can be dangerous.

There wasn’t a huge splash for the Diamondbacks this offseason. They made a couple moves to pick up Steven Souza, and they named Brad Boxberger as their new closer, but that’s not going to win them the World Series. In fact, with a surge of playoff contenders coming, it might not be enough to play game 163. My dark horse from last year won’t be in it this year.

That leaves the Dodgers (Sorry Padres, you’re still young). Los Angeles is as good as ever, and they are probably my pick to win the pennant this year, even if they ultimately fall in the division race. Their lineup is stacked from top-to-bottom from veterans Matt Kemp and Yasmani Grandal to young stars Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Not to mention, they might have the best pitcher to ever do it: Clayton Kershaw. I have no choice but to pick the reigning five-time NL West champs.

Predictions:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants (Wild Card)
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

2017 World Series Prediction

The Fall Classic is upon us, and with apologies to the Indians, it’s fair to say we are down to the two best teams in baseball. The Dodgers have made mincemeat of their postseason competition so far, while the Astros are on an emotional high coming off of a thrilling 7-game series. I’m coming off of an amazing week in which I was 9/10 in predicting games during the Conference Series including picking the two league champions. Who do I think has the edge? Let’s take a look at who will be the 2017 World Series Champions.

The Astros have won the pennant for the second time in franchise history, but it’s their first in the American League. Yes, because they switched leagues in 2013, they are the first franchise in baseball history to win both the AL and NL pennants. However, their last trip to the World Series didn’t end so well, as they were swept by the White Sox in 2005. Of course, their goals this week stretch far beyond just winning their first World Series game.

At 5’6″, second baseman Jose Altuve leads the charge for Houston as he carries his MVP numbers into the playoffs. His unreal .346 average in the regular season actually jumped to .400 in October, along with a proportionally impressive 5 home runs and 8 RBIs. Altuve is a tough out, and there is nobody more passionate about the game in either clubhouse than this superstar. Well maybe one person… but I’ll get to him.

Altuve isn’t alone on this stacked batting order. Everyone from top to bottom is a threat including George Springer and Carlos Correa. It seems as though the Astros are now on the top of their game after a slight dip towards the end of the regular season. Without a home loss this postseason, it’s hard to imagine the offense will let up anytime soon.

As for the pitching, Charlie Morton shut out the Yankees in Game 7 and proved that Houston is more than just Dallas Keuchel and ALCS MVP Justin Verlander.  Morton’s contributions will be desperately needed, as the latter pitchers will not be able to hoist the trophy by themselves. Having depth at pitching is crucial, and Morton might be the unsung hero to make it happen for the Astros.

Speaking of depth at pitching, if the Astros  have a weakness, it’s their bullpen. Their two best arms have combined for a 9.00 ERA in October, which puts a lot of pressure on the starters to perform. Unlike the Dodgers, the Astros don’t have that security blanket to reliably come in and bail out a bad start. If Ken Giles and Chris Devenski don’t turn it around, it just might be the undoing of the Astros.

On to the Dodgers, who appear to be on cruise control. Continuing their dominance of the regular season and putting aside their September struggles, L.A. looks to seal the deal and secure their first championship since 1988. It’s a little weird to think that the 5-time defending NL West champions haven’t won “the big one” yet, but they’re confident that the drought ends now.

Perhaps the best thing about the Dodgers is the fact that literally anyone in the lineup can be the hero on any given night. For example, none other than Enrique Hernandez hit 3 long balls for 7 RBIS in a Game 5 series-clinching victory for L.A. Six All-Stars or not, having every single man in the lineup capable of taking the game over is a nightmare for opponents.

Also a nightmare? Yasiel Puig. Love him or hate him, this man loves baseball. No one else has the guts to do a bat flip-stare down combo on a routine single. Honestly, his gumption infuriates me, but if I’m a Dodger fan, I love his heart and how he can spark the team at any moment. He might not be the most talented guy, but it would behoove the Astros to make a note of shutting Puig down.

So far, the Dodger pitching has been phenomenal, but they haven’t faced an offense like Houston’s yet. Clayton Kershaw has the worst ERA of the starts with a respectable 3.63 and 0.98 WHIP. Rich Hill is right behind him with a 3.00 ERA but a 1.11 WHIP. Those are the Dodgers’ #1 and #2 pitchers. It’s definitely concerning to see that they’ve struggled the most, but you could chalk that up to more high leverage situations because the Dodgers haven’t lost at home or lost before Game 4 in any series so far. This leeway surely takes a lot of pressure off of the back end of the rotation and the bullpen.

The bullpen is what really separates Los Angeles from the Astros. Of the 34 relief appearances, these pitchers have combined to give up only 3 runs. Kenta Maeda has yet to allow a hit, and Kenley Jansen is getting about 1.5 strikeouts per inning. While I still think the Yankees had the best bullpen in baseball, the Dodgers are certainly a close second, and that’s a big reason why they could win the World Series.

Predictions:

Game 1- Dallas Keuchel at Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers win 7-6

Game 2- Justin Verlander at Rich Hill, Astros win 8-2

Game 3- Yu Darvish at Lance McCullers, Dodgers win 6-3

Game 4- Alex Wood at Charlie Morton, Astros win 7-5

Game 5- Clayton Kershaw at Dallas Keuchel, Astros win 8-3

Game 6- Justin Verlander at Yu Darvish, Dodgers win 2-1 (Instant Classic)

Game 7- Lance McCullers/Charlie Morton at Rich Hill, Dodgers win 8-5

Dodgers in 7.

World Series MVP: Justin Turner

2017 NLCS Predictions

It’s a rematch of last year’s NLCS in which the Cubs won in 6 en route to their 1st World Series championship in 107 years. The Dodgers made quick work of the upset-minded Diamondbacks in 3 short games, while Chicago gutted out 5 tough games against the Nationals in NLDS play. You may wonder who has the advantage: L.A. had nearly a week off while the Cubs have a rhythm going even on short rest. Let’s take a look at who’s got the edge in the NLCS.

The Dodgers enter Saturday Night five days removed from their sweep of the Dbacks. It’s hard to generate a report on L.A. because there isn’t much to go off of. However, we do know that Clayton Kershaw continues to struggle in October. He got the win in Game 1 of the NLDS, but not before allowing four long balls which were luckily solo shots for Arizona. He is still in search of his first World Series trophy, and that search could continue if he doesn’t improve soon.

The Dodgers need him, too. Rich Hill wasn’t great in Game 2 either, and Alex Wood and Hin Jin Ryu have very limited postseason experience. Luckily, Yu Darvish came to play after a disappointing playoff stint with the Rangers. Whether or not he keeps up his 1.80 ERA remains to be seen, but it won’t get much more difficult than a series-clinching Game 3 win on the road.

The late-season struggles of the Dodgers appear to be behind them as they tore up Arizona’s aces. Five starters are currently hitting over .333, but again, this is only over the course of 3 games. However, L.A. had an MLB-best 6 All-Stars, so they are definitely not slouching at the plate. As well as the Cubs pitched against the Nats, the Dodgers will be a different story.

Lastly, phenom Corey Seager has been left off of the roster for the NLCS citing a back injury. The Dodgers will surely miss his glove at shortstop as well as his base running ability. He can still be a fiery leader from the dugout, but it’s a huge loss not to have him in the lineup this week. Los Angeles is hoping they can keep up their stellar team play without him.

The grittiest team in baseball keeps on grinding as they survive and advance past the Nationals. I could go on forever about D.C.’s woes, as their last chance to finally win a playoff series may come down to next year despite consistently dominating the NL East. Hopefully the Nats can get a good playoff manager to get them over the hump.

Anyway, Chicago is back in the NLCS with a chance to repeat as champions behind some really good starting pitching and Wade Davis. Kyle Hendricks shutout the Nats in Game 1, but let up 4 runs in Game 5. Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta performed admirably in losses, but Jose Quintana has emerged as a game changer as he has yet to allow a run in his short postseason career.

The Cubs are surely a bit gassed after a long week and flight to L.A. from D.C., but they’re fired up to bring back the Commissioner’s Trophy. After Quintana squares off against Kershaw, the rotation gets a bit foggy.  Regardless, I really question their bullpen. Wade Davis has been great, but Joe Maddon is already pushing him to his limit.  It’s only a matter of time until he blows up.

For the most part, Chicago hitters had a tough time against Nationals’ pitching, and it barely gets easier in Los Angeles. The bottom of the lineup was picking up most of the hits, but unlike the Dodgers, Chicago only has one player hitting .333 or above: Albert Almora Jr. I’m not counting out Chicago, but they are probably too tired to hang with the Dodgers in this NLCS.

PREDICTIONS:

Game 1- Jose Quintana at Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers win 5-4

Game 2- John Lackey at Rich Hill, Dodgers win 8-6

Game 3- Yu Darvish at Jake Arrieta, Dodgers win 3-2

Game 4- Alex Wood at Kyle Hendricks, Cubs win 5-1

Game 5- Clayton Kershaw at Jose Quintana, Cubs win 4-2

Game 6- Jon Lester at Rich Hill, Dodgers win 10-7

Dodgers in 6.

2017 ALCS Predictions

The Astros and Yankees have battled their way one step closer to the World Series, but they first meet to determine who is the best in the American League. Houston shelled Boston with a barrage of hits on their best pitchers all series long, while the Yankees mounted a historic comeback over the red-hot Indians. Let’s take a look at who has what it takes to advance to the Fall Classic.

The Astros are certainly the favorites in this series after a convincing win over the Red Sox. After two crushing 8-2 wins at home behind the arms of Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, the Astros put the final nail in Boston’s coffin in a comeback win at Fenway in Game 4. In doing so, ex-manager John Farrell’s time with the Red Sox is over as Boston looks for answers to what they can do better next year with their loaded roster.

Meanwhile, the Astros march on to the ALCS to face the Yankees. A benefit of finishing off the Sox in Game 4 gave Houston a few extra days of rest to give their bullpen some time to rejuvenate and get ready for another tough series. Keuchel gets the ball for Game 1 after an incredible performance in Game 2 of the ALDS.

Keuchel is 3-0 in his 3 postseason starts with an impressive 2.29 ERA to show for it. However, this is his first time advancing to the ALCS, so it remains to be seen if he has the stamina and mental stability to keep it going. That said, I’m not too worried. He’s had an incredible season for the Astros, and his phenomenal postseason numbers should hold up against some inconsistent Yankee bats.

Justin Verlander is no slouch either. He was 2-0 in last week’s ALDS, and 9-5 in the postseason during his 12-year career. While the Yankees have an experienced C.C. Sabathia at the top of his game, the Astros have Verlander. Unfortunately, behind these two studs are some questionable starters. Part of the reason the Astros lost their momentum in Boston was because there is a steep drop off after their 2 aces have made their starts. The Yankees love to punish opposing pitchers for mistakes, so look for manager A.J. Hinch to have a short leash on the rest of the rotation.

Honestly though, the pitching questions might not even matter considering how hot Houston’s hitting is. Six of the nine batters have a batting average over .375 including (future) MVP Jose Altuve’s .533. Obviously, that’s an unreal standard to keep up, but there is no pitcher in the world ready to take on this lineup right now. I’d point out the three-headed monster of Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, but everyone on this team is so dangerous right now that the gassed Yankees have their work cut out for them.

Here’s the thing: The Yankees are ahead of schedule. Just like the 2015 Cubs, the Yankees weren’t expected to be a World Series contender until next year. Well, here they are in the ALCS for the 16th time as they carry a league-best 11-4 record at this level. Pretty good numbers for perhaps the greatest baseball franchise of all time! And if you don’t think they belong here, I’d direct you to them winning 3-straight elimination games last week against what was the most dominant team in baseball…the Indians.  But how do they move forward?

First off, a well-rested Masahiro Tanaka will start Game 1 in Houston. In a roller coaster of a year, Tanaka spun a gem in Game 3 of the ALDS by going 7 shutout innings and tossing 7 strikeouts. It was a great outing to keep the Yanks’ hopes alive, and wouldn’t you know it, here he is trying to steal one on the road. We’re about to find out which Tanaka shows up to the ballpark for this one.

On that note, the Yankee rotation is totally backwards. Their #1 and #2 pitchers have been terrible as of late, while C.C. Sabathia and Tanaka carried the team into the next round. So, either New York is destined to have really good pitching across the board if Sonny Gray and Luis Severino show up, really bad pitching if the 3 and 4 pitchers revert to normal, or inconsistent pitching in any other case. The odds are not in New York’s favor.

However, they do have the best bullpen in baseball. Tommy Kahnle, Jaime Garcia, and Aroldis Chapman have yet to give up a run in a combined 14.1 innings of work, and David Robertson isn’t far behind with his 1.13 ERA over 8 innings. The Astros have some really good hitters, but if anyone is going to shut them down in crunch time, it’s these guys. Disclaimer: Joe Girardi still has to use them correctly… something he doesn’t like to do apparently.

Now to the Baby Bombers. “MVP” Aaron Judge has a .125 batting average and Gary Sanchez only has .222 behind him. Yeah, that might be because of Cleveland’s insane pitching staff, but it’s also no excuse for some of the best young hitters in the MLB today. So, unlikely heroes Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks have carried the Yanks this far, but how long can New York balance on their shoulders? The theme for the Yankees is unlikely players filling in for their stars’ struggles. That’s going to have to change for the Yankees to advance.

PREDICTIONS:

Game 1- Masahiro Tanaka at Dallas Keuchel, Astros win 7-3

Game 2- Luis Severino at Justin Verlander, Astros win 9-3

Game 3- Charlie Morton at C.C. Sabathia, Yankees win 7-6

Game 4- Brad Peacock at Sonny Gray, Yankees win 6-4

Game 5- Dallas Keuchel at Masahiro Tanaka, Astros win 4-3

Game 6- C.C. Sabathia at Justin Verlander, Astros win 5-2

Astros in 6.

2017 ALDS/NLDS Predictions

I really can’t explain to you how excited I am. I’ve been waiting most of the year for these playoffs to finally begin, and here we go. All six of my preseason picks to win their divisions are joined by the Yankees and Diamondbacks in what will be some really entertaining games. Let’s take a look at what we can expect in the Division Series.

Red Sox vs. Astros

If you like offense like you saw in Arizona last night, this one is for you. However, the Sox have a distinct advantage in the form of Chris Sale. Yeah, the Astros have Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, but they can’t match the perennial Cy Young candidate who thrives in any environment he’s thrown into. What remains to be seen, however, is if Sale is a David Price postseason pitcher or a Madison Bumgarner.

For a moment, let’s check out the lineups. The Red Sox bats aren’t as hot as we’ve seen in the past, but they’re still scoring an impressive 4.85 runs per game. Mookie Betts leads a balanced group of talented sluggers like Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Hanley Ramirez to name a few. There is no containing the depth of this team which makes every at-bat stressful on the pitcher.

Luckily for Houston, they can probably do better. Jose Altuve, my pick for AL MVP, George Springer and Carlos Correa make an unstoppable trio. You don’t even have to mention role players like Alex Bregman and Josh Reddick who can contribute any night. As good as the Red Sox lineup is, the Astros undoubtedly are the best hitters in baseball.

Right…so there is going to be a lot of scoring. There is going to be some good pitching, too. Where’s the edge? Boston’s bullpen. The Red Sox made a lot of moves at the deadline and among those were insuring that they have a strong bullpen for the postseason. Well, here’s where the fruits of their labor pay off. Craig Kimbrel is probably the best closer in baseball besides Kenley Jansen, and he has a lot of strong arms to set him up. For the Astros, Chris Devenski is a really good long reliever, but he can only do so much by himself.

Game 1- Chris Sale at Justin Verlander, Red Sox win 4-3

Game 2- Drew Pomeranz at Dallas Keuchel, Astros win 8-5

Game 3- Lance McCullers at Rick Porcello, Red Sox win 9-7

Game 4- Justin Verlander at Chris Sale, Red Sox win 4-2

Red sox in 4. Disclaimer: As my preseason World Series champion pick, I have to go with Boston. If this series goes to Game 5 without Sale, I’m in trouble.

 

Yankees vs. Indians

The age-old rest vs. play debate. The Yanks just played and scored a huge victory over the Twins to now face the best team in the American League. What don’t the Indians have going for them? They have stacked starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and some of the best clutch hitters in baseball. BUT…they haven’t played in 4 days… their longest rest since the All Star break.

The Yankees just played on Tuesday and are riding high on momentum. The bats are there, and they were hardly perturbed by Luis Severino failing to get out of the 1st frame. Aaron Judge homered, Brett Gardner came up big, and the bullpen locked down the Twins when they had to. Doing so against the Indians is a different story, but with a day off before Game 1, they should be healthy and ready to go.

I must say, the Indians are going to start on the wrong foot by starting Trevor Bauer against Sonny Gray, but I’m sure that’s by design. Either they steal Game 1 against the Yanks’ ace and go for the sweep, or they win it in 4. Their rotation is simply that good. Honestly, they could probably square up Corey Kluber against Sonny Gray and win, but whatever.

The Yankees are up against a juggernaut of a baseball team right now. They have an awesome bullpen that really shortens the game, but the Indians aren’t far behind in that aspect. The Bronx Bombers are going to have to come up with some really good, consistent situational hitting which has been very hard for them to do this season. It’s not something that comes naturally for anyone… except the Indians.

Game 1- Sonny Gray at Trevor Bauer, Yankees win 8-4

Game 2- CC Sabathia at Corey Kluber, Indians win 7-1

Game 3- Carlos Carrasco at Masahiro Tanaka, Indians win 3-2

Game 4- Trevor Bauer at Luis Severino, Indians win 6-5

Indians in 4.

 

Cubs vs. Nationals

They may be friends in the picture, but this is business. The defending world champs were the final team to clinch their division and for their efforts will face the Nationals on the road. Primarily, they bring the same roster as last year, but without the same ‘pop’. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo aren’t MVP-caliber anymore.  The chemistry is there, but they just aren’t as hungry… as is the case with most defending champions.

On the other hand, the Nationals are starving just to get past the first round. They boast one of the best offenses in the National League with Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, etc. Each pack their own skill set to compliment the others, and Jayson Werth is one of the most clutch hitters in the MLB in my opinion.

It doesn’t get better than Nats pitching either. Max Scherzer is a 50/50 shot to win the Cy Young Award against Clayton Kershaw; Stephen Strasburg is healthy and on the top of his game, and Gio Gonzalez is a strong #3 pitcher. The X factor is Scherzer’s tight hamstring. He injured it on his final start of the regular season and D.C. is taking it slow with their ace. If Strasburg gets the win in Game 1, I imagine manager Dusty Baker will be even more cautious before bringing Scherzer back, but if they get in a 0-1 hole early, we’ll see Scherzer for Game 2.

The Cubs have a really good rotation too, but they’ve just underperformed. Kyle Hendricks is getting the nod for Game 1 while Jake Arrieta will get the 4 seed. It seems backwards relative to last year, but Joe Maddon is going with the hot hands early on. Honestly, they are no match for the Nats. Washington finally revamped their bullpen too, so Chicago has their work cut out for them if they’re hoping to repeat.

Game 1- Kyle Hendricks at Stephen Strasburg, Nationals win 4-3

Game 2- Jon Lester at Gio Gonzalez, Nationals win 6-4

Game 3- Max Scherzer at Jose Quintana, Nationals win 7-2

Nationals in 3. Note: I’m not sure who’s pitching Game 2 at the time of this article. If Scherzer pitches Game 2 and Gonzalez goes in Game 3, I think Quintana can win at home and force a Game 4. If that’s the case- Nationals in 4.

 

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

I’m telling you, this is going to be “can’t miss TV.” My dark horse rides on to the NLDS and has a legitimate chance to knock off the slumping Dodgers. The nation saw how explosive the Dbacks’ offense was last night when they were able to outlast the Rockies. Colorado threw the kitchen sink at Arizona and hung around all game, but the Dbacks just kept scoring. And they look to do the same against L.A.

However, the pitching staff did give up 8 runs. Pitching wins championships, and Arizona doesn’t have it. Clayton Kershaw isn’t the best postseason pitcher, but the Dodgers’ rotation is still deep. Kenley Jansen is still the best closer in the MLB, and there are some hard throwers in that bullpen.

The problem is that their offense is so unpredictable. They have the ability to put up 15 on an opponent, but they might get shutout the next night. Cody Bellinger has had a phenomenal rookie season as he eagerly awaits his first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, veterans like Justin Turner and Corey Seager have been here before, and they know what it’s like to lose. Experience definitely helps in October, so I’m excited to see if L.A. can put it all together now that it matters the most.

The series comes down to how hot Arizona will be. If they have an off night, the Dodgers will win no question. If they’re hitting like they did last night, L.A. doesn’t have a chance. No one has been more consistent than the Diamondbacks, but again, the playoffs are different. The Dodgers have the best record in the National League. This one is going the distance.  Are the Dbacks consistent enough to overcome subpar pitching?

Game 1- Taijuan Walker at Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers win 6-3

Game 2- Robbie Ray at Rich Hill, Diamondbacks win 10-5

Game 3- Yu Darvish at Zack Grienke (HELL YEAH), Diamondbacks win 3-2

Game 4- Clayton Kershaw at Zach Godley, Dodgers win 7-5

Game 5- Taijuan Walker at Alex Wood, Dodgers win 8-6

Dodgers in 5. Note: I have no idea how the Dbacks are doing their rotation after expending their #1 and #2 options in the Wild Card game. That’s my best guess.